Pengaruh risiko lingkungan pesisir terhadap harga penawaran properti residensial di Jakarta Utara
Abstract
The coastal areas of North Jakarta face structural threats due to a combination of tidal flooding and land subsidence, which have the potential to affect residential property asking prices. This study aims to analyze the impact of coastal environmental risks on residential property asking prices in North Jakarta (excluding PIK) using the Hedonic Price Model (HPM) approach. The data used includes 141 observations of property asking prices sourced from the Kaggle platform and analyzed using Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) with robust standard errors, extended with spatial econometric models (SAR and SEM). The results indicate that land subsidence is the only significant environmental risk variable, where a 1 cm/year increase in the subsidence rate reduces property asking prices by 28.32%. Conversely, the flood hazard variable showed no significant effect, suggesting limited utilization of risk information by market participants. Meanwhile, the distance to the seawall showed a significant positive coefficient, indicating that proximity to the seawall serves as a proxy for risk rather than a protection premium. These findings suggest that the real estate market tends to be more responsive to direct and easily observable environmental risks, while probabilistic risks are less internalized in prices. Therefore, policy interventions and improved access to risk information are crucial for maintaining property values in coastal areas.
Kawasan pesisir Kota Jakarta Utara menghadapi ancaman struktural akibat kombinasi banjir rob dan penurunan muka tanah yang berpotensi mempengaruhi harga penawaran properti residensial. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh risiko lingkungan pesisir terhadap harga penawaran properti residensial di Jakarta Utara (non-PIK) menggunakan pendekatan Hedonic Price Model (HPM). Data yang digunakan mencakup 141 observasi harga penawaran properti yang bersumber dari platform kaggle dan dianalisis menggunakan Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) dengan robust standard errors, diperluas dengan model ekonometrika spasial (SAR dan SEM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penurunan muka tanah merupakan satu-satunya variabel risiko lingkungan yang berpengaruh, di mana setiap kenaikan laju penurunan tanah 1 cm/tahun menurunkan harga penawaran properti sebesar 28.32%. Sebaliknya, variabel bahaya banjir tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan yang mengindikasikan keterbatasan pemanfaatan informasi risiko oleh pelaku pasar. Sementara itu, jarak ke tanggul menunjukkan koefisien positif signifikan yang mencerminkan bahwa kedekatan dengan tanggul berfungsi sebagai proksi risiko, bukan protection premium. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa pasar properti cenderung lebih responsif terhadap risiko lingkungan yang bersifat langsung dan mudah diamati, sementara risiko yang bersifat probabilistik kurang terinternalisasi dalam harga. Oleh karena itu, intervensi kebijakan dan peningkatan akses informasi risiko menjadi penting dalam menjaga nilai properti di kawasan pesisir.
References
Abdullah, F. M., Andriyanto, H., Nababan, J. R., Abdillah, F., & Sulistyawan, R. I. H. (2021). Results of land subsidence measurement using GPS method in the Jakarta groundwater basin in 2015–2019. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 873(1), 012034. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/873/1/012034
Anselin, L. (2003). Spatial externalities. International Regional Science Review, 26(2), 147–152. https://doi.org/10.1177/0160017602250971
Atreya, A., & Ferreira, S. (2015). Seeing is believing? Evidence from property prices in inundated areas. Risk Analysis, 35(5), 828–848. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12307
Beltrán, A., Maddison, D., & Elliott, R. J. R. (2018). Is flood risk capitalised into property values? Ecological Economics, 146, 668–685. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.12.015
Bernstein, A., Gustafson, M. T., & Lewis, R. (2019). Disaster on the horizon: The price effect of sea level rise. Journal of Financial Economics, 134(2), 253–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.03.013
Bui, N., Wen, L., & Sharp, B. (2024). House prices and flood risk exposure: An integration of hedonic property model and spatial econometric. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 69(1), 100–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-022-09930-z
Elhorst, J. P. (2003). Specification and estimation of spatial panel data models. International Regional Science Review, 26(3), 244–268. https://doi.org/10.1177/0160017603253791
Fauziah, A. (2025, June 26). BMKG: Ancaman banjir rob di Jakarta Utara terus meningkat. Beritasatu.com. https://www.beritasatu.com/dki-jakarta/2899301/bmkg-ancaman-banjir-rob-di-jakarta-utara-terus-meningkat
Hadi, S. Q., & Ali, O. A. (2025). Spatial quantile autoregressive model: A review. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 31(146), 141–155. https://doi.org/10.33095/45aqgm03
Iskandar, A., Makarim, C. A., & Chandra, K. (2025). Studi kasus penurunan muka tanah dan muka air tanah di Jakarta Pusat tahun 2010–2022. Jurnal Mitra Teknik Sipil, 8(2), 549–558. https://doi.org/10.24912/jmts.v8i2.21979
Kok, S., & Costa, A. L. (2021). Framework for economic cost assessment of land subsidence. Natural Hazards, 106(3), 1931–1949. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04520-3
McNamara, D. E., Smith, M. D., Williams, Z., Gopalakrishnan, S., & Landry, C. E. (2024). Policy and market forces delay real estate price declines on the US coast. Nature Communications, 15, Article 46548. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46548-6
Muhamad, N. (2025, August 7). Kawasan di Jakarta dengan rerata harga rumah di bawah Rp1 miliar. Databoks. https://databoks.katadata.co.id/properti/statistik/689427186b145/kawasan-di-jakarta-dengan-rerata-harga-rumah-di-bawah-rp1-miliar
Ohenhen, L. O., Zhai, G., Lucy, J., Werth, S., Carlson, G., Khorrami, M., Onyike, F., Sadhasivam, N., Tiwari, A., Ghobadi-Far, K., Sherpa, S. F., Lee, J.-C., Zehsaz, S., & Shirzaei, M. (2025). Land subsidence risk to infrastructure in US metropolises. Nature Cities, 2, 543–554. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-025-00240-y
Putra, S., Tuerah, P. R., Mesra, R., Sukwika, T., Sarman, F., Alifin Nur, N., Nuruzzaman, M., Susmita, N., Sari, M. N., Ladjin, N., Mulyapradana, A., Sinaga, E. K., & Akbar, J. S. (2023). Metode penelitian kuantitatif: Teori dan panduan praktis analisis data kuantitatif (1st ed.). PT Mifandi Mandiri Digital.
Roscoe, J. T. (1975). Fundamental research statistics for the behavioral sciences. Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 82(1), 34–55. https://doi.org/10.1086/260169
Rüttenauer, T. (2025). Spatial Data Analysis. ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Advances in Geographic Information Systems. http://arxiv.org/abs/2402.09895
Sariffuddin, S., Samsura, D. A. A., van der Krabben, E., & Setiyono, B. (2024). Distressed property and spillover effect: A study of property price response to coastal flood risk. Land Use Policy, 147, 107379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107379
Tarui, N., Urbanski, S., Lam, Q. L., Coffman, M., & Newfield, C. (2023). Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: A case study of Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi. Climatic Change, 176, 130. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03602-4
Tetama, A. R., Suharno, S., & Tyola, Y. N. (2022). Pembangunan kereta cepat Jakarta–Bandung: Memaknai konsultasi publik dan partisipasi masyarakat dalam pengadaan tanah. Widya Bhumi, 2(2), 136–151. https://doi.org/10.31292/wb.v2i2.41
Terimajaya, I. W., Dewi, N. L. S., Simamora, T., Judijanto, L., Sigamura, R. K., Nurhayati, N., ... & Basri, B. (2024). Dasar-Dasar Statistika: Konsep dan Metode Analisis. PT. Sonpedia Publishing Indonesia.
Wibawa, S. P. P., Prasetyo, P. K., & Sudibyanung, S. (2023). Kelayakan nilai ganti kerugian tanah musnah sebagai penanganan dampak sosial pada pengadaan tanah. Widya Bhumi, 3(2), 152–172. https://doi.org/10.31292/wb.v3i2.63
Widodo, J., Trihatmoko, E., Setyaningrum, N., Izumi, Y., Handika, R., & Khomarudin, M. R. (2025). Technical and policy analysis: Time series of land subsidence for the evaluation of the Jakarta groundwater-free zone. Urban Science, 9(3), Article 67. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9030067
Willemsen, W., Kok, S., & Kuik, O. (2020). The effect of land subsidence on real estate values. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 382, 703–707. https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-703-2020
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
Copyright (c) 2026 Muthi'a Sekhar Negari, Syahna Marisah, Muhammad Hafidz Meiditambua Saefulloh, Hardana Gading Perdana Putra, Maria Putri Paramita
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
